Post by leerain on Oct 28, 2011 4:00:37 GMT -8
By Tom Geoghegan BBC News Magazine
The eurozone's bailout fund now stands at one trillion euros (£880bn or $1.4tn) after a deal was thrashed out in Brussels by European leaders. The figure of one trillion has become increasingly widely used but do we really understand it?
Once a representation of something beyond our comprehension, the word trillion - 1,000,000,000,000 - has now sealed its place in common parlance.
As US politicians were trying to find budget savings of $1.2tn, European leaders were topping up their rescue fund to the tune of 1tn euros.
A combination of economic progress and inflation means larger and larger numbers are needed to define financial sums, and a billion is no longer the benchmark. So how did trillion take over?
The words billion and trillion, or variations on them, were first documented by French mathematicians in the 15th Century.
A trillion was 1,000,000,000,000,000,000, or the third power of a million. The US later adopted what became known as the short scale, which reduced a trillion to 1,000,000,000,000 (and a billion to 1,000,000,000), but the British retained the old system until the 1970s.
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How billions and trillions changed
image of Susie Dent Susie Dent Lexicographer
In 1690, the philosopher John Locke suggested the French word billion as a useful term for avoiding "the often repeating of millions of millions of millions etc". The French had purposely coined "billion" a 100 or so years earlier to denote the second power of a million ("bi" being the standard prefix for two).
However the application of the word was subsequently changed by French arithmeticians, so that the terms "billion" and "trillion" denoted not the second and third powers of a million, but a thousand millions and a thousand thousand millions. This system was adopted by the US. Britain, however, retained the original (and etymologically correct) use.
In 1974, Harold Wilson pledged that the British government would adopt the "short scale" naming system used in the US to avoid ambiguity. As a result, the value of billion is now generally understood to mean a thousand millions. Nonetheless this is still a bone of contention for many, and the older sense "a million millions" is still common.
At that point, the word trillion was rarely mentioned in the news and resided more in the imagination of children, alongside zillions and gazillions, as an expression of something on an enormous scale.
It was more commonly used in the US. The New York Times, for instance, anticipated the US economy in 1970 would soon surpass $1tn. But it only cropped up in the British media with regularity in the 1980s, in reference to the yen or the lira.
But the last few years has seen its increasing use and it has now supplanted a billion, says James Abdey, a fellow of statistics at London School of Economics.
"When it was first used in the 1970s it had shock value. The first time someone hears the word trillion, they might not know the number of zeros but they know it's a big number. But the figures are now bandied around in the media and it's devalued its importance."
The US is more used to the term, due to the size of its economy and its spending power.
"'Trillion' does seem to have much more currency than it used to, probably because of the costs of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the budget and deficit," says John Allen Paulos a professor of mathematics at Temple University in Philadelphia.
"This doesn't mean that most people have a visceral grasp of its size. It'd be interesting to have the presidential candidates asked during a debate, How many millions in a trillion? I suspect at least some of them would try to deflect the question with a joke. And emotion trumps the numbers as usual. A few million dollars spent on some hot-button issue often arouses more ire than a trillion-dollar war."
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The big numbers divide (selected countries)
* Short scale: US, UK, Australia, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, Ireland, English Canada
* Long scale: France, Italy (both switched to short then back to long), Spain, Germany, French Canada
It's not only in the more affluent countries that the word has risen to prominence. Living in Zimbabwe during the height of its inflation problems in 2008, people became used to talking about their daily expenses in terms of trillions.
Elsewhere, economic growth has driven an inexorable rise in numbers, says economist Andrew Dilnot. "The speed of change you get from quite small annual growth is what catches us all out. If something is growing at 10% a year then it doubles every seven-and-a-quarter years."
But increased use has not enhanced understanding, he says. "My guess is that most people really struggle to have a clear idea of what a trillion is. I have to sit down and think pretty hard how many noughts there are.
"The answer I think is what we mean is 1,000 billion, which has 12 noughts. Some people still think a billion is a million-million, which is really a trillion, and they think a trillion is something else. So the honest answer is people just see a trillion and think it's a very, very big number."
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